There are people who know how to detect future trends that most will not see until they come true. On many occasions, these geniuses are misfits of their time and are often perceived as charlatans.
In antiquity, from the 6th century BC, the scientific paradigm was led by “geocentric theory”. That is, because of the belief that “the Sun and the rest of the planets revolved around the Earth.” And, consequently, the Earth was the center of the Universe. No one questioned or questioned this way of thinking. So much so, that all hypotheses about the Universe were developed from these assumptions. Over time, the most eminent thinkers and scientists – led by the philosophers Plato and Aristotle – came to the conviction that it was an immutable truth.
Years later, Aristarchus of Samos dared to question the scientific status quo of the time, formulating “the heliocentric theory”. This wise man affirmed that “the Sun was the center of the Universe” and that “the Earth and the rest of the planets revolved around it”. By then, most of his colleagues mocked and opposed his hypothesis, which was severely criticized and condemned. Not surprisingly, giving credence to this new theory meant assuming that they were wrong.
Over the centuries, new thinkers began to appear, with new ways of looking at and interpreting the Universe. Among them, Nicolás Copernicus stood out, who took over from Aristarchus of Samos, assuring that “the Earth rotated on itself once a day, and that once a year it made a complete revolution around the Sun”. Since Copernicus had elaborate mathematical calculations to support his hypothesis, this time the heliocentric theory was received with less skepticism.
One hundred years later and thanks to technological advances, Copernicus’ hypotheses were demonstrated by Galileo Galilei. With the help of the telescope – an instrument that he himself invented – the falsehood inherent in the geocentric theory was dismantled, thus consecrating the veracity of the heliocentric theory, described almost eighteen centuries ago by Aristarchus of Samos. This is how one of the most important paradigm shifts humanity has experienced occurred.
PROFILE OF THE VISIONARIES
“A man with a new idea is a madman until the idea triumphs.”
(Mark Twain)
Obviously not all madmen are visionaries. Some are missing a real screw. Be that as it may, this group of geniuses is made up of such illustrious characters as Leonardo da Vinci, Nostradamus, Louis Pasteur, Jules Verne, Thomas Alva Edison, Nicolás Tesla, Aldous Huxley, George Orwell, Arthur C. Clarke, Ray Bradbury and Steve Jobs , among others. They all have seven characteristics in common:
1. They challenge the status quo. By investigating the story behind each visionary, we discover that they all suffer at some point from a deep crisis, which leads them to break with the broad avenue that the rest of their contemporaries travel, exploring new and alternative paths. To achieve this, they begin to question the core of their identity, questioning in turn the belief system with which they were conditioned by their social and family environment. This is how they become a threat to the established social order.
2. Misfits and eccentrics. They do not fit with the pattern that prevails in society. Hence, they tend to reject the way of life that their time proposes to them. And in doing so, they go through a stage where they feel excluded and marginalized. Loneliness and misunderstanding are the price they pay at first for daring to listen to their intuition and follow their own path. Sometimes, to reaffirm themselves before others, they tend to adopt bizarre attitudes and eccentric behaviors, causing them to be labeled “weird” and “crazy”.
3.Rebels and mavericks. By gaining confidence and self-confidence, they feel stronger and more determined to rebel against the authorities and nonsense of their time. They all take a certain delight in transgressing the rules, breaking the rules and breaking the limits. They are not resigned to living as they live today; but they live as they will live tomorrow.
4.Free of thought. They are people who have built their own independent thinking, forged through transformative experiences. They have an open mind, free of morals and prejudices. They tend to lead a very unconventional lifestyle, which usually causes a lot of controversy in their environment.
5.Idealists and dreamers. They are people ahead of their time. So much so, that what a visionary thinks today is what humanity will think in 50 years. However, their exacerbated progressivism leads them to be future-oriented people, with a tendency to embrace chimeras and utopias.
6.Creative and inventive. Creativity is his hallmark. They are born inventors, each in their field. Many of his ideas end up giving rise to innovations that mean a point of disruption with current proposals, which suddenly become old and obsolete.
7.Revolutionaries oriented to the common good. Tremendously humanistic, visionaries end up becoming great reformers, whose vision inspires a paradigm shift in society. At the moment in which the majority verifies the veracity and validity of their visions, the established structures begin to be destroyed and transformed, generating a new reality.
INNOVATION DIFFUSION LAW
“There is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come.” (Víctor Hugo)
All evolutionary advances noted by this group of crazy-visionaries are subject to the so-called “law of diffusion of innovations”, popularized in 1962 by Everett Rogers. This sociologist dedicated his life to investigating the process by which the individuals who are part of a collective share and assimilate new ideas and technologies that allow the progress of humanity. According to this theory, the population of any country is divided into five segments, based on their predisposition to adapt to constant changes and advances related to new knowledge and ways of doing things.
On a more professional and business level, Rogers estimates that 2.5% of society is made up of “innovators”. That is, those entrepreneurs from different fields who dare to question the status quo, offering new and better products and services to consumers. Based on the new offer created by these pioneers, it is immediately used by the “first followers”, who represent 13.5% of the population. This group is characterized by easily appreciating the advantages inherent in this type of innovation.
To the extent that the new product, service or knowledge generates a substantial improvement in the quality of life of its users, little by little it is communicated through word of mouth. According to Rogers, over time it began to be used by the so-called “early majority”, made up of 34% of the population. In other words, those who, by directly or indirectly meeting one of the first followers, have been able to verify that it is something useful and beneficial, deciding to incorporate this novelty into their lives.
It is then when said innovation becomes fashionable, causing it to begin to be used by the “late majority”, made up of another 34%. In this case, they use that advance when it is no longer considered an “innovation” nor is it perceived as “new”. Finally, there are the “laggards”, a group made up of the remaining 16%, who start to use new ideas, tools or technologies when the rest of the world does and they have no other choice.
As much as the general tendency is to ridicule or reject the different, the alternative and the unknown, it is impossible to stop the advance and progress of humanity. As individuals we can get stuck in the old or open our minds and explore the innovations that the new brings. And it is that madness –the real one– consists of continuing to do the same thing that we have been doing up to now, hoping to reap different results.
